ENSO OUTLOOK
issued on Tuesday 22 April 2014
The likelihood of El Niño remains high, with all climate models surveyed by the Bureau now indicating El Niño is likely to occur in 2014. Six of the seven models suggest El Niño thresholds may be exceeded as early as July.
The Pacific Ocean has been warming along the equator over recent weeks, with continued warming in the central Pacific likely in coming months. Another burst of westerly winds is presently occurring in the western Pacific, and is likely to cause further warming of the sub-surface.
El Niño has an impact across much of the world, including below average rainfall in the western Pacific and Indonesian regions, and increased rainfall in the central and eastern Pacific. For Australia, El Niño is usually associated with below average rainfall, with about two thirds of El Niño events since 1900 resulting in major drought over large areas of Australia.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently in a neutral state. Model outlooks currently suggest the IOD is likely to remain neutral through late autumn and early winter, with two of the five models surveyed suggesting a positive IOD may develop by early spring. Positive IOD events often coincide with El Niño and are typically associated with large parts of southern and central Australia experiencing lower rainfall than usual.
Source: Bureau of Meteorology
jasonblog said:
Hi Lockylandcare – It’s good to see you’re still in business.
I received an update on the dire El Nino situation yesterday from the delightful Magdalena Roze.
Magdalena wrote “It’s worth noting, however, that 2013 was Australia’s hottest year on record, despite there being no El Nino. I’ve used this analogy before, but Australia breaking those heat records in 2013 during this ENSO-neutral phase is like a racing car driver achieving a record on a wet track with poor tyres. El Nino actually tilts the odds towards extreme weather such as heatwaves, which is what makes this latest forecast so worrisome.”
I guess we’ll just have to wait and see how severe it is.
It’s not beyond the realms off possibility to imagine a catastrophic El Nino event occurring simultaneously with a complete meltdown of capitalism resulting in a global nuclear war between America and some sort of burgeoning Eurasian state – it’d be a toss up between China & Russia.
That may be the worst case scenario, but I suggest you make the most of the balmy days of autumn just in case!